Meteorologically challenged
Posted by Carl on March 26, 2008
Oh. Dear. God.
From Phillybaseballnews.com:
| Phillies Prospect #13: Joe Bisenius |
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| Chuck Hixson PhillyBaseballNews.com |
Mar 25, 2008 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Joe Bisenius started the 2007 season in Philadelphia, but wound up back at Triple-A Ottawa and struggling badly for the rest of the Summer. Now, he’ll be back at Triple-A to start the season, but in a completely different atmosphere and with something to prove.
Why he moved from #14 to #13: By most accounts, Joe Bisenius had a bad season in 2007. You have to look a little deeper though and you’ll see a couple of interesting facts. First, many of the Phillies pitchers who were stationed in Ottawa had bad seasons, which is a testament to the bad playing conditions that the team operated under. And second, Bisenius still has all of the skills that moved him through the system in the first place and has actually improved upon some of them. This will be an important season for the tall right-hander, but there is reason to believe that he’ll bounce back. Repertoire: Bisenius has a low-90s fastball that he can pump up to 95 miles per hour on a pretty regular basis. His curve can be dominating and have impressive late movement that hitters simply can’t follow. Throughout his minor league career, Bisenius has generally had pretty good control, but his control completely abandoned him, which led to his weak numbers at Ottawa. Pitching Style: When you watch Bisenius pitch, you quickly notice how effortless he is on the mound and how smooth his delivery is when he’s throwing well. His mechanics are solid and he brings a consistent release point, except for when he changes things around a little to keep a hitter off balance. The 2007 season was so bad for him primarily because his pinpoint control is the basis for all he does on the mound, but whether it was pitching in Ottawa or the fact that he was trying too hard to make it back to the majors, his control was well off mark and he got himself in a lot of trouble. If anything good came out of his struggles, it’s that he showed he knows how to handle tough spots and he was able to remain poised and in control of himself, if not his pitches. Projection: This time last year, Bisenius looked like he was going to snag a spot in the Phillies bullpen, but ultimately wound up there for only a week or so and that was because of injuries to other relievers. Now, with the down year at Ottawa, Bisenius has to rebuild himself on the depth chart, but won’t have trouble doing just that. He’ll be pitching in a park that by all accounts should be pretty neutral and have a much more exciting atmosphere to pitch in with the Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phillies new Triple-A affiliate. The ‘Pigs will be playing in a brand new, impressive ballpark and the fan base is pumped, giving the Triple-A squad a complete turn around from what they faced last season in Ottawa. With a bounce back season, Bisenius could be one of the early promotions to the majors if they need relief help, even though he was a pretty early cut from Major League camp this Spring. He also figures to be fighting for a full-time job in the ‘pen for next season. ETA: He threw two decent innings (1.1 innings against Atlanta and 0.2 against Florida) in the majors last season and he could pitch there again, if needed. Certainly, for next season, it will be time to consider Bisenius for a spot on the Phillies staff and he could find some substantial time in the big city this season if things work out in his favor. What else you should know about Joe Bisenius:
Joe Bisenius’ career stats
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(Emphasis mine)
I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that when Hixson refers to the “bad playing conditions” here in Ottawa, he means the weather and not the field or the facilities. And no, this will not be strictly a(nother) weather rant. First off, Joe Bisenius was injured for a good part of last season - that tends to affect your stats. Second, “many of the Phillies pitchers who were stationed in Ottawa had bad seasons” - but once again, many of them were injured (Zack Segovia, J.A. Happ, Matt Smith) or sidelined (Matt Childers) or moved on (Brian Mazone). So you had some guys being brought in who might have been better served playing in Reading. Third - was the weather really all that bad? Sitting in Philadelphia, you’d probably assume that it must have been bad in Ottawa, because, well, it’s in Canada so it must be cold. And in 2007, you’d be wrong.
April 17 - 6.6 C May 1 - 13C
April 18 - 12.5 May 2 - 14.2
April 19 - 16.3 May 3 - 14.8
April 20 - 21.1 May 4 - 16.3
April 21 - 20.2 May 15 - 12.2
April 22 - 23.7 May 16 - 7.7
April 27 - 10.7 May 17 - 10
April 28 - 10.6 May 18 - 15
April 29 - 13 May 19 - 22
April 30 - 11.1 May 20 - 10.4
May 21 - 16
May 22 - 17.4
Grand total: 22 games. 10 games at >15C. 4 games at >20C.
Average game time temperature for April and May: 14.3C.
Only two games below 10C, and one of those was Opening Day. And note: these were game time temperatures, not the highs for the day.
There are some that argue that cooler temperatures are actually a pitcher’s friend, since it reduces some of the muscular fatigue produced by the heat, typically found in the summer months. Additionally,
Pitchers generally have worse control but higher strikeout rates and better luck with balls in play in cold weather. I’m not sure if this favors a certain type of pitcher in the postseason. It might be the case that a pitcher’s “stuff” is an important factor in how the weather interacts with their performance. For example, a pitcher who relies on breaking balls or changeups and are susceptible to control problems might be at a particular disadvantage in cold weather conditions.
From an offensive perspective, this evidence suggests patient lineups will fare well in cold weather when compared to free swinging lineups. Pitchers appear to throw fewer strikes in cold weather and a patient lineup may be more likely to take advantage of this result. Additionally, a batted ball is less valuable in cold weather than warm weather because a batted ball is less likely to fall for a hit or clear the outfield fences in below-55 degrees conditions.
There is still a lot of work to do in understanding how weather conditions affect baseball performances. I think this summary provides some insights into how the game can change in October.
And finally, it seems that our friend Chuck (whose work I generally like) wants to have it both ways. Previously, he attributed the hitters’ poor stats to the weather. Now how can everyone suck in the cold? By definition, if a pitcher is struggling (in this case because of the cold) the implication is that the hitters are doing well - and vice versa. A hitter who can’t hit in the cold, isn’t beating up on opposing pitching - because he can’t hit in the cold.
March 28, 2008 at 10:07 am
Looking at his stats, it’s clear Joe lost some zip to his fastball and lost control as well, compared to 2006. Was it because of injuries? Look at 2005 in Lakewood. Was he injured then too?
March 28, 2008 at 6:01 pm
Or was it just because of the jump from Low A to A ball?
April 11, 2008 at 7:58 pm
[...] US was in part designed to make playing the game so much easier in April and May. Because as we know, the hitters and the pitchers both fare equally poor in the cold - you remember all of those [...]