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Archive for February 20th, 2008

First impressions

Posted by Carl on February 20, 2008

CLOSEST TO MAJORS
# TEAM SCORE
1 Dodgers 3.89
2 Yankees 3.76
3 Astros 3.71
4 Indians 3.69
5 Reds 3.64
6 Red Sox 3.58
7 Rays 3.58
8 Rockies 3.58
9 Cardinals 3.55
10 Twins 3.38
11 Pirates 3.33
12 Mariners 3.31
13 Athletics 3.20
14 Cubs 3.11
15 Orioles 3.09
16 Angels 3.05
17 Padres 3.05
18 Brewers 3.05
19 Marlins 3.00
20 Diamondbacks 2.91
21 Braves 2.85
22 Tigers 2.71
23 White Sox 2.62
24 Royals 2.62
25 Rangers 2.60
26 Phillies 2.55
27 Nationals 2.45
28 Mets 2.44
29 Giants 2.07
30 Blue Jays 1.89

From Baseball America’s “From the top: Measuring which farm systems are closest to the Majors“.  It’s subjective of course (and yes, stats are for losers) but even if they outperform the evaluation, will the former Ottawa parent club get out of the lower third?  Interesting to see former parent club Washington (Montreal) mired in 27th spot, one below the Phillies, while Baltimore may have turned things around (15th position).

This, according to the author, Ben Badler:

What could these results mean for the near future? Last year, the Diamondbacks and Rockies finished with 90 wins each, one year after each team won 76 games. In last year’s free agent market, the Diamondbacks didn’t spend any money on major league free agents, while the Rockies’ only major league free agent acquisition from another team was righthander LaTroy Hawkins, who received a one-year, $3.5 million deal. The Diamondbacks last year had a 4.00 CTM Score. They received key contributions from five of their top 10 prospects—righthanders Micah Owings and Tony Pena, third baseman Mark Reynolds and outfielders Chris Young and Justin Upton—en route to a National League West title.

The 2007 Rockies had a 3.80 CTM Score and ended their year in the World Series. Top prospect Troy Tulowitzki established himself as one of the game’s best shortstops–especially with a glove in his hand–while Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez both had favorable results on the mound down the stretch when most of the Rockies starting pitchers hit the disabled list. While the focus is often on finding future superstars or above-average big leaguers, players who are simply average or below-average but better than a replacement-level player add value to a major league team. By being able to plug in a pair of prospects with upside into the major league roster when injuries created an opening, the Rockies may have had an advantage over teams that would have otherwise had to rely on an older Triple-A veterans or raw youngsters.

A multitude of variables affect a team’s chances of making the playoffs—having a strong major league roster to begin with, staying healthy, and having a general manager and a manager who make the right moves during the season. But with the right mix of all those elements, a team that can supplement its 25-man roster with quality players in the upper levels of its farm system should have a marked advantage over teams that do not.

The Rockies and Diamondbacks were admittedly cherry-picked examples from 2007. But even though results may vary from year to year, it’s easy to see why teams with advanced, high-caliber prospects have a competitve advantage.

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